What almost nobody knows is that a 90 day late payment by itself has the same exact effect on a credit score as a foreclosure. Fair Isaac’s classic fico model is designed to determine the liklihood of someone going 90 days late on a particular loan obligation over the next two years. Once someone goes 90 days late, since that is the event the scoring model is trying to predict, anything beyond that is a moot point and will not cause an additional decrease in the score.
While it is true that a foreclosure does make a person more of a credit risk overall, the classic fico model is not telling you if they are a risk overall other than the risk they will pay 90 days late over the next two years. Whether they are a risk to file a bankruptcy or whether they are a risk for defaulting 5 years down the road is not what the score is trying to predict.